Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
